Choices and Decisions

Shannon Bohrer

"Good Decisions come from experience
and experience comes from making bad decisions." - Mark Twain.

(5/2022) Every day we make decisions that affect us. We often view and critique the decisions made by others, as well as decisions made by our government from our own perspective. The perspective of what decision we would make if we were in an equivalent situation. It is relatively easy and without any consequences to critique the decisions of others.

We often think that our decisions and choices are critical and yet many are not. I remember a professor telling his class that we think of decision making as akin to intelligence, but in reality, many of the decisions in our lives are trivial. He used the example of choosing what to eat for lunch. Most often the choice is inconsequential. How many times have you said, or heard someone say, they could not remember what they had for lunch two days ago?

While many of our choices may seem trivial, we do have a hierarchy of choices, and at the topmost for many of us is our marriage. It is difficult to lessen the importance of the choice, of whom we share our life.

On an individual level, our choices can seem almost insignificant compared to choices that government leaders make. The choice of Russia, really Putin, to invade Ukraine could turn out to be a success for him or a colossal failure, depending upon the outcome. The unknown that exists is how Putin’s choice will affect the world going forward.

Just as important, or maybe more important are the decisions governments are making in responding to war in Ukraine. The choices are deadly serious, complex, and not without unknown consequences. There appears to be a large segment of the world that believe we should be doing more, sending more equipment, more defensive weapons and even creating a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Opponents of the no-fly zone believe that if we become directly involved, there is a possibility that World War III would start. However, if we do not sufficiently engage and Ukraine falls, what happens? Would that be the beginning of World War III? Will Putin stop his aggression? Will he invade other nations?

While authoring this article, the war is raging, and there is a possibility that it may end before the article is published. However, the article is not really about the war. It is about decisions we make, including our government’s decisions about our involvement in the war. Making decisions on information with a probability of what will happen or what we think will happen, is like gambling. How do we measure what we think will happen? If losing the war in Ukraine is not an option, how far do we go to win, without the possibility of creating a broader and more deadly conflict? Is that possible?

Our intelligence agencies were exceptionally good at predicting Putin’s actions, especially where and when he would invade Ukraine. They also predicted that Ukraine would fall rather quickly. Since that did not happen, was the strength of the Russian army overestimated? Or was the strength of the Ukrainian army, underestimated? The importance of relying on intelligence information, when making decisions about the level of support for Ukraine, cannot be understated. And conversely, sometimes our intelligence is not accurate, or just incomplete. Decision making can be complex and challenging and yet, the unknown consequences of making those decisions could change our world, and not in a good way. Perfect information, that we would like to have, does not exist.

History, specifically Europe’s history of war, is a large consideration. Another consideration is Vladimir Putin, his stability and mind set. If our assistance with defensive weapons and humanitarian aid, is not a cause or factor for him to elevate the conflict with chemical weapons or tactical nukes, then we have made a reasonable choice. If we raise our assistance with aircraft and a no-fly zone and Putin responds with tactical nukes, would the world believe we made a bad choice?

The unknowns that exist include the fact that if we do not elevate our assistance, or if we do not create a no-fly zone, Putin may still use tactical nukes, regardless of our choice. Conversely, there is no guarantee that elevating our assistance and creating a no-fly zone, will influence Putin’s decisions in either direction.

While most seem to agree that we should be sending weapons and humanitarian aid in support of Ukraine, we have also heard from some that we should not interfere. Others actually support the Putin regime. A few of the FOX news opinion pieces, and others, that support Putin have been re-broadcast on Russian state television. The idea of individuals with free speech supporting Putin in a country where free speech is verboten, seems incongruous. But that is another story.

As a person that grew up during the cold war, I have a tough time understanding why anyone would support a dictator who is a bully and attacks a sovereign neighbor. The bully says that the Ukrainians are Slavic and Russian and wish to be liberated and become part of Russia. If, as reported, his intention is to have more people in Russia, maybe we could broker a deal and offer him our Putin sycophants. I think that would be a good decision.

Many of us at one time or another have been asked if we have any regrets, which equates to our past choices and decisions. Should be we asking the same question of our government? Evaluating our individual past decisions is easy, or it seems that way. With our government’s involvement in Ukraine, what will the experts say in the future about those decisions. Like taking the road less traveled, we do not know how our governments involvement will affect our future. It is the unknowns that we cannot answer, we can only speculate.

As to our personal choices, we think we are making the right decisions, but only time will tell.

"Choose your life’s mate carefully.
From this one decision will come 90 percent of all your happiness or misery."
-  H. Jackson Brown, Jr.